tldr: China’s going to get beaten in this trade war with Trump and they will likely open up their borders for trade and I’m excited about it.
Being a US industrialists will be a wealthier position to be in than services. We will get back to making things and it’s about damn time.*
- Asymmetrical trade access is bad.
- Throwing Muslims in internment camps is bad.Allowing pollution at unprecedented scale is bad.
- Destroying another country’s industrialist engineering class through abusive labor and monetary policies is bad.
- Shipping finished goods 2 to 4 weeks across the Atlantic on sulphur rich diesel burning maritime ships is bad.
- A country with 12 MWh/capita should be creating and exporting more than it is importing from a country with 4 MWh/capita.
Buyers win trade wars.
At the end of Trump’s term, there will be a ~7x-10x improvement in manufacturing job growth in the States from Trump in my humble opinion. Certainly, people have taken note of Trump’s performance characteristics vs. Obama’s.
I’m betting he’ll win in 2020 and as long as he sustains the trade war with China.
I still think he’s a schmuck, but he might be the schmuck that the USA needs in the long term.
The Democratic Party has no madman who will speed up the negotiations and even has delusions about the notion of automation destroying the manufacturing sector stateside.
I’m a rare % of engineers by discipline because the USA got rid of textile engineers(my school even shut down the textile engineering program) and industrial engineers are rare too at <5% of engineers.
For the first time in 9 years, my inbox is off the hook to do engineering work in the USA building factories stateside.
My classmates have had similar inquiries.
The engineers of the USA have been relegated to an economy whereby they can make more money pushing pixels, modulating database cells, creating powerpoints, and playing paper and investment games than building physical things that require deeper STEM competencies.
You can make more money going to a 6 -24 week coding bootcamp and slinging code and design than learning hard industrious skillsets that require deep STEM competency. Best described by Thiel above.
It’s time for China, Japan, and the other motley of countries to open their g’damn borders for trade. Lee Iacocca greatly describes this from a video decades ago below.
China’s threat of rare earth metals is cute at best, smugglers will bring it in, just like they did with the 2010 Japan snafu.
Civil Unrest is never a good look in a dictatorial regime. It plants the seeds of overthrow. Xi Jinping is a scumbag, the last thing he wants is 200M rural farmers revolting.
I’m not long term worried about semiconductors either. (hint: Applied Materials is a US company and one of the 2 relevant companies necessary for building a semiconductor foundry.)
List goes on and on….