The title is a phrase I keep repeating to people in tech. I’ll keep updating this list as time passes.
The data in support of this is extraordinary.
There’s no comeback for California, NY will endure, Texas will have a bit of a bump, but its “tech gem” – “Austin” is run by a very incompetent mayor and the state of Texas’s accumulating infrastructure debt exceeds its useful relevant economic capacity in a world in which the renewables ayotallahs have their way with passive index funds and more.
Hostile tax regimes are coming to a city near you and some geos are more insulated than others.
The evidentiary items below.
- Retiree Destination
- Florida is the #1 retiree destination. We absorb old people, their families, and more.
- NY is 20.
- CA is 37.
- TX is 28.
- With retirees floating to Florida as a prime location, it absorbs families.
- Taxes
- State Income Tax
- FL – 0%
- TX – 0%
- CA – 1% to 13.3%
- NY – 4% to 8.82%
- Gross Receipts Taxes
- FL – 0%
- CA – 0%
- TX – 1.97%
- NY – 0%
- Property Tax
- FL – 0.89%
- CA – 0.76% (Prop 13 nuance here)
- TX – 1.8%
- NY – 1.72%
- State Income Tax
- Travel
- FL – Miami & FLL – both international airports. Both are spending anywhere from 250k-500k/day to expand their terminals. More routes being added regularly. El Al the israeli airline moved their headquarters from NYC to Miami.
- TX – Austin doesn’t even have an international airport. Houston isn’t a destination city.
- CA – Numerous
- NY – Numerous
- Time Zone – affords access to significant markets.
- FL – EST
- TX – CST
- CA – PST
- NY – EST
- Conference Destinations
- Florida has 2 cities ideal for conferences: https://jshay.events/top-meeting-destinations-for-2021/
- Puerto Rico Capital Gains Tax Profit Lever proximity.
- If someone is going to sell their next C-Corp that’s aged ~5 years and sees the acquisition 24 months in advance, they will likely be able to travel to Puerto Rico and establish domicile much faster if they setup their life in Florida than if they are in NY, CA, or Texas.
- Pension, Infrastructure, and Healthcare Debt/Capita
- Florida – Low
- Texas – Medium
- California – High
- NY – High
- Data Sources
- Capital Management
- Management of ~$880bn+ worth of capital moved to or opened offices in Miami in the last 16 months. I got word that $120Bn to $200Bn in funds will do the same in < 12 months right after sharing this tweet.
- Elliot – $40bn
- D1 – $21bn
- FF- $3bn
- Point 72 – $22.1bn
- Millenium- $52bn
- Apollo- $460B+
- Bravo -$78B+
- GCatalyst-$18B+
- BAM – $100Bn
- ExodusPoint- $90B
- Citadel – $243B
- Family Offices
- The #’s here are insane and difficult to assess, I can promise you one thing, family offices didn’t relocate to California and New York in droves.
- Demographic Domination
- The South Florida area from Miami to Fort Lauderdale has 10M people in a 45 minute drive.
- 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day in the USA and a large % of them will take their wealth and pensions to the state of Florida.
- 50% of the people from Fort Lauderdale to Miami aren’t from here, it creates the necessary elements for global business to thrive.
- Transportation
- Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Miami will be connected by a privately owned Brightline.
- Development
- There are penalties for gov’t agencies in Florida who do not respond in 30-60 days or less to real estate permitting. They penalize delays.
- Management of ~$880bn+ worth of capital moved to or opened offices in Miami in the last 16 months. I got word that $120Bn to $200Bn in funds will do the same in < 12 months right after sharing this tweet.
